Retribution for the US port fees for Chinese-owned and Chinese-built ships is already here, even before the fees come into effect. The main effect seems to be a restructuring of shipping services, rather than any actual fees being collected. Operators of liner routes are simply taking the Chinese-related ships off their US runs. Several liner carriers have announced that they propose no surcharges.
I think the most important effect of the Chinese declaration is going to be the loss of data and information about Chinese ports. Most large carriers call at Chinese ports on their loops. No data means a loss of accuracy on arrival times and dwell times at the ports. This will affect all shippers and supply chain partners, making predictions more difficult.
I’m afraid geopolitics will make ocean shipping, and perhaps all kinds of carriage, into a game in which advance knowledge is impossible. We already see some effects in the loss of information from AIS due to spoofing and turning off transmission because of sanctions.
China is taking preemptive action against the US’s plans to hike port fees for China-linked tonnage. The port fees are scheduled to come into effect on October 14, but there haven’t been any administrative rules set yet.
So we don’t know how, or if, they will be collected.
Quite a few experts believe that there won’t ever be any. The box-booking platform Freightos is one source mentioned in the article. Trump has a history of putting penalties out there and giving way in negotiations just before they will go into effect. It’s known as the Trump Always Chickens Out (TACO) effect.
I agree that we may never see any container ship fees. But I am also wary of what Trump may be giving away in the negotiations with China.
And I think history tells us that we will see severe blowback in terms of various trade restraints placed by foreign nations. These will hurt American businesses.
The Fall 2025 edition of Brookings Papers on Economic Activity contains this interesting paper which estimates the annual cost of climate events such as wildfires, air pollution, and warming weather. It’s no secret that climate change affects poorer members of society more. And we could guess that the West Coast, Gulf Coast, and Florida would see the largest effects.
But this analysis by US county really brings home the fact that climate change is costing every ne of us money even today.
One interesting observation is the huge jump in cost for mortality and for insurance. It makes the point that the risks are what is driving the cost. It means we have to think about probabilities and chance effects. Most people aren’t very good at estimating that. Or they can’t appreciate the meaning of a certain low-probability number; they assume it can’t happen to them!
The mortality costs come from the effects of wildfire smoke and from natural disasters. The extra heat alone doesn’t create much cost. The extra deaths from heat are roughly offset by a reduction in deaths from cold weather.
Insurance costs both direct (payouts due to disasters) and indirect (premium boosts or loss of coverage) are a big factor. We might not manage to afford the risk of climate change. This table illuminates the source of the costs.
A final note; local governments are going to increasingly bear the cost of climate events. They will need to invest in protections or raise money to pay for the disasters as they occur. You can bet that will be priced into local bond interest rates and increased local tax rates on property or sales.
The authors don’t claim to have covered all the costs. But the analysis down to the county level brings home to localities and individuals how they are being affected.
The draft paper can be found from a link in the article— it’s posted here.
The paper summarized here is part of the fall 2025 edition of the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, the leading conference series and journal in economics for timely, cutting-edge research about real-world policy issues. Research findings are presented in a clear and accessible style to maximize their impact on economic understanding and policymaking. The editors are Brookings Nonresident Senior Fellows Janice Eberly and Jón Steinsson.
Supply Chain and Logistics 