A good summary as of the beginning of October 2022. Drewry research is well executed and they have thoughtful analysis.
There is an oversupply of container shipping capacity coming. There are so many newbuilds coming. And the amount of container freight seems to be leveling off, if not declining. And congestion seems to be declining, in at least the places that were bad over the past two years. Currently port congestion is responsible for only about 7% of effective capacity loss, down from as high as 17%.
Drewry’s position is that liner firms have the ability to control the supply of shipping, but they need to be careful to do it right. But the thinking is that the firms themselves cannot completely bridge the gap between supply and demand. Missed sailings can help, and so can phasing out old ships faster. that would also be a benefit for the climate change issues we face.
Drewry – Weekly Feature Articles – Managing the decline
California again takes the lead in denying demurrage and detention charges by marine terminals and intrmodal equipment providers, such as chassis providers, when return is prevented by actions outside the control of the users. Such conditions might include gates being unavailable for return, a provider diverting the equipment from the original intrchange location, and when the carrier documents an unsuccessful attempt to return the item, or because a vessel’s booking date is changed.
All these changes will be good for the business. They will force carriers and equipment providers to pay attention to the effects of congestion, and work to reduce it.
Congratulations to California for this law. Now let’s see how it works.
Even though imports are not coming as fast, and inventories are already high, demand for warehouse space has not slacked off. Read some conjectures as to why.
The Inland Empire is seeing rates as high as $100/square foot. Even the slowdown in Amazon warehouse openings, where they have chosen to rent out their space rather than occupy it, has not affected the demand.