Author Archives: just2bruce

Pacific-Atlantic Rail Link: A Game Changer for China-Brazil Trade

The announcement of an agreement to build a Pacific-Atlantic rail link across South America is important to global commerce. If it actually succeeds, it would allow many goods to skip the Panama Canal in transit from Brazil to the Far East, including China.

The idea seems to be a combined intermodal and bulk rail line from the East Coast of Brazil to Chancay Port in Peru.

China of course imports bulk grain and oilseed cargoes from Brazil. Brazil also is home to some manufacturing which might be cheaper than Chinese manufacturing has become. And Brazil consumes many manufactured goods now as the country develops. China is an ideal source for these.

It’s called the “Two-Ocean Railway”. It should cut the China-Brazil trip to 10 days.

China is already investing $1.3B in Chancay Port in Peru. This railway will create guaranteed demand for the port’s capabilities.

In the light of President Trump’s tariff machinations and his threats surrounding the Panama Canal, it’s wise for the Chinese to create an alternative.

Brazil and China are an ideal trading pair to show comparative advantage at work; each nation produces what it’s best at, and trades for the other goods. The result produces lower costs for both parties, even including transport costs.

Katherine Si, China Correspondent July 15, 2025

https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/ports-logistics/china-and-brazil-plan-pacific-and-atlantic-rail-link

Transshipment and the Vietnam Trade Deal

We know that these trade deals aren’t final. But any deal with tariffs will spawn a lot of transshipment activity. The question always is how much value added is put there in the new country?

The goods may be just moved through the country. This creates a tariff avoidance scheme. This happens even if the goods nominally change hands. Sometimes they don’t even get out of the container.

On the other hand, the goods may be more like intermediate supplies for manufacturing, and be assembled into something else before being exported again. These products may qualify for the lower tariff.

All gradations of these extremes are possible. Each individual transfer must be evaluated for transformation in the new country.

The point of the article below is a good one. Underlying it all is a theory of what tariffs hope to accomplish.

If it’s to reshore manufacturing to the US, that probably won’t happen; instead firms will try to run around the tariffs via transshipment. That has happened for hundreds of years, perhaps thousands. There will be a lot of reshoring talk, to stroke Trump’s ego. There will be a few US investments that may or may not last. But the US economy has developed beyond the manufacturing stage. No one truly wants manufacturing jobs— to get workers, wages will need to be so high that it wouldn’t be cost effective to make most stuff here.

The United States became a maritime power in the 1770-1820 time period by deliberately offering shipping to goods that were trying to evade tariffs and other rules set by European countries.

The trade constraints didn’t work in the long run then and won’t now. People will find a way.

Nick Savvides, Europe correspondent

July 3, 2025

https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/containers/transhipment-key-to-us-vietnam-trade-deal

Impact of Trade Wars on Sustainable Energy Projects

How will the trade wars affect sustainable energy projects and products? S&P Global has a report that analyzes this.

Any long-term conclusions are risky, given the US propensity to alter course (TACO tactics). But thanks to them for giving it a try.

This traffic light analysis is helpful to understand the implications for different utility grade technologies.

Batteries seem to be hit the hardest. Wind falls within the medium range for most criteria. However, it suffers from policy bias by the current US administration. Distributed generation, such as home solar, is also at risk because of policy and cost implications.

Retaliatory measures from trade partners add more complexity and unpredictability to decisions for these technologies.

The full report is available here.

Energy Transition, Electric Power, Renewables, May 28, 2025

Analysis by Paola Perez Pena, Alex Kaplan, Tiffany Wang, John Murray, Timothy Stephure. With contribution from Indra Mukherjee, Tom Kim, Jiani Wang, Jessica Jin, George Hilton, Cinthya Pena, and Edurne Zoco

https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/blog/energy-transition/052825-the-new-normal-how-trade-tensions-and-policy-uncertainty-may-reshape-the-us-cleantech-landscape