Category Archives: Shipping

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Blanking voyages masks real impact of Covid

Spot rates for container shipping are staying up, but only because ocean carriers continue to blank voyages big time.

If you were shipping and you feared your voyage would be blanked, what would you do?  You would be prepared to buy some shipping at spot, to be sure you can get on the ship.   Your ratio of long-term (and possibly delayed) contracting for shipments and your short-term purchases would change in favor of the short term.  And that would keep short term demand up in spite of a long-term need going down.  That’s what’s happening now.

With COVID-19 out there, and no certainty about international trade, it seems certain that conditions are much worse than are being reported based on shipments. At some point the other shoe will drop, and all prices will go down.  We need not to trust the BIMCO spot prices for future predictions right now.

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via Blanking voyages holds ocean rates steady, but masks the real impact of Covid – The Loadstar

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Posted on May 4, 2020 by in Managerial Econ, Microeconomics, Shipping, Supply Chains

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China cargo collapse

This interesting article shows how CargoMetrics is using data on ship lading, IoT readings, and vessel tracking to determine the amount of trade to and from China right now. the Coronavirus problem in China has essentially caused ocean commerce to and from China to plummet since Chinese New Year (CNY).

Bulk shipments such as iron ore and coal have dropped over 40% according to the article. Container shipments out of China have also dropped, probably due to the disruption of work schedules at Chinese manufacturers.  There are also issues involving quarantine of ships and cargos due to the virus.  The article is especially good when it uses graphs to show the changes.

Of course, this is a great promotion for Cargometrics’ capabilities.  I think one would have to look closer to discover how well Cargometrics’s data truly represents the entire range of activity, but the trends shown are certainly marked.

One very interesting fact the article gives is that petroleum imports have not dropped yet; they are up by a considerable amount. This may be due, so they say, to the longer transit times. The ships may have to lie to near Chinese ports when they cannot unload due to the quarantines or port handling issues.  The other shoe may yet fall even in the tanker business.

 

American Shipper 2020-02-22 074814     Greg Miller, Senior Editor   Thursday, February 20, 2020  via CargoMetrics data reveals depth of China cargo collapse – FreightWaves

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Posted on February 22, 2020 by in Logistics, Ports, Shipping, Supply Chains

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Coronavirus delays create Container shortages in Chicago for DDGS

Coronavirus issues, particularly in China, are creating real problems for Dried Distiller Grains (DDGS) shipments. The lack of inbound containers from China means that there are not enough containers to ship DDGS out of the US.

DDGS is a byproduct of ethanol production, and in this part of the Midwest US, there is much ethanol production.  It is some of the most productive corn land in the US.  The DDGS are primarily used as animal feed.  China imports DDGS as feed for pork in the older times. I’m not sure how much they are importing right now due to the tariff fight and the pork disease issue in China. China’s pig production is just recovering from that tragedy a year or so ago.

The article gives an indication of container rates North Asia to West Coast US. They are trending down to attract business. blanked sailings are also a feature of the current environment in container shipping from China.

It’s a mess!

screenshot SandP Global Platts

via Container shortages in Chicago impact DDGS on coronavirus delays | S&P Global Platts

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Posted on February 13, 2020 by in Logistics, Shipping, Supply Chains

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