Last year the increase in emissions at the Port of Los Angeles was due to the extreme congestion at the port. ships were stacked up nearby, waiting to unload. And congestion in the terminals also created more truck waiting.
Fortunately, the particulates and lesser pollutants did not rise too much, and ramain=ed below the target levels.
We can expect improvement in 2022, because of the congestion relief we are seeing now.
A study by Morgan Stanley consultants indicates that there is way too much inventory in retail outlets. They believe it’s an overshoot of almost 20%. That means that inventory needs to be liquidated by these firms, and also that they will slow down reordering.
The implication for transportation is less demand for it. That’s consistent with the downturns on prices we see for goods movement in both ocean shipping and domestic trucking.
Too much inventory can be good for retailers like TJMaxx and Ross that can help liquidate inventory of more upscale retailers. They will have good supplies of products to move at a discount.
It is interesting to see how directly supply chain and logistics activity correlates with inventory levels. While it’s not always the case, right now the connection is direct.
A good summary as of the beginning of October 2022. Drewry research is well executed and they have thoughtful analysis.
There is an oversupply of container shipping capacity coming. There are so many newbuilds coming. And the amount of container freight seems to be leveling off, if not declining. And congestion seems to be declining, in at least the places that were bad over the past two years. Currently port congestion is responsible for only about 7% of effective capacity loss, down from as high as 17%.
Drewry’s position is that liner firms have the ability to control the supply of shipping, but they need to be careful to do it right. But the thinking is that the firms themselves cannot completely bridge the gap between supply and demand. Missed sailings can help, and so can phasing out old ships faster. that would also be a benefit for the climate change issues we face.
Drewry – Weekly Feature Articles – Managing the decline