Asim Anand writes in Platts agriculture report that China is suffering from substantial losses in their pig population due to African swine fever (ASF). The pig herd has declined by 20%, and that translates to less need for soybeans. Estimates run to 22 million mt less.
I’ve been watching the world soybean flows since 2014 when my colleague Cris Clott and I, working with Althea and Libby Ogard, and with help from Scott Sigman, wrote an article about the soybean flows and the possibilities for containerization of soybeans as opposed to bulk transport.
US soybean exports to China have fallen by 85% due to the imposition of a tariff of 25% on US products by China. So world wide there is a glut of soybeans and prices are dropping fast. Prices of US soybeans are under $9 per bushel, the lowest since 2016. (See graph from USDA-NASS).
Graph from https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Agricultural_Prices/pricesb.php retrieved 2019-05-14.
We can expect this trend to continue, and as the trade war with China escalates, US soybeans will cease to be exported to China at all. Exports represent about half of the US production each year, and China is the largest customer. We can hope for a change, but I’m guessing this market is virtually gone for the US, as the other soybean-producing countries, Brazil and Argentina especially, move in and establish supply chains around the world.
via Swine fever set to reduce China’s soybean imports further: USDA | S&P Global Platts
May 14, 2019 in Logistics, My Research, Shipping, Supply Chains
Tagged China, economics, Logistics, soybeans, supply chains, technologies, trade, transportation
My colleague and I and a student recently published a new paper in the American Journal of Transportation and Logistics. You can see it below. The paper is based on a presentation made at the International Association of Maritime Economists’ 2017 annual meeting in Japan.
The paper is about Ocean Trading Intermediaries (OTI’s) and their distribution across the US. The data came from the Federal Maritime Commission’s lists of registered US and foreign OTIs, which includes Ocean Freight Forwarders and Non Vessel Owning Ocean Carriers. WE discuss the history, legal framework, and current conditions facing OTIs and make special reference to the Chicago area, in which a cluster of these businesses has arisen.
We used statistical cluster analysis to show that despite the belief that ocean freight forwarding is becoming more technology driven and thus able to locate anywhere, the businesses still choose to form clusters in major ports.
via Built to Last? The Changing Role of Ocean Transportation Intermediaries: Disintermediation and Reintermediation – eSciPub Journals: Open Access Peer Reviewed Journals
You can get the pdf here. AJTL-2018-01-0201 published
How to cite this article:
Christopher Clott. Built to Last? The Changing Role of Ocean Transportation Intermediaries: Disintermediation and Reintermediation. American
Journal of Transportation and Logistics, 2018,1:5.
I recently published a new paper in the journal Games. You can see it below.
It deals with a very important logistics problem. In a cold chain, different parcels require different conditions of temperature. A multiple compartment vehicle can be sued to consolidate loads with different temperature characteristics in one vehicle. But loading the vehicle at a low cost is a hard problem, requiring heuristics to solve. And even then, how do we divide the cost of loading among the different package owners in a fair way? ‘Fair’ here means that no group of owners will choose to leave the consolidation, because they cannot do better on their own than the cost they are charged.
The paper uses an inductive algorithm on top of a common heuristic to give a method for solution. There is a small example in the paper that shows how to apply the algorithm.
via Games | Free Full-Text | Sharing Loading Costs for Multi Compartment Vehicles
You can get the pdf here. games-09-00025 (1) final version