Tag Archives: ocean shipping

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Blanking voyages masks real impact of Covid

Spot rates for container shipping are staying up, but only because ocean carriers continue to blank voyages big time.

If you were shipping and you feared your voyage would be blanked, what would you do?  You would be prepared to buy some shipping at spot, to be sure you can get on the ship.   Your ratio of long-term (and possibly delayed) contracting for shipments and your short-term purchases would change in favor of the short term.  And that would keep short term demand up in spite of a long-term need going down.  That’s what’s happening now.

With COVID-19 out there, and no certainty about international trade, it seems certain that conditions are much worse than are being reported based on shipments. At some point the other shoe will drop, and all prices will go down.  We need not to trust the BIMCO spot prices for future predictions right now.

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via Blanking voyages holds ocean rates steady, but masks the real impact of Covid – The Loadstar

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Insights: Contracts Are Overrated In Maritime

Here is an interesting article about the questionable value of contracts.   Do they make any situation more complex and less dependent on trust?   Absolutely. And especially since many business people are expert at getting out of contracts that looked good at the time and turned bad as events unfolded.

I am reminded of a story that occurred to me in real life.  Years ago we shred a data processing installation with a large company. They set up what they called an ‘alternate data center’ for backup of their main facility in Houston, and one of its main features was a giant IBM laser printer that was the size of a small house, what today we’d call a tiny house.  The President of the company was touring the facility, and the guy running it was extolling the value of the printer in providing backup.  Hi pointed out the that printer could print something like 100 pages a minute. Maybe it was more like 1000, I forget.  The President said “Gee, I guess I’m going to have to hire more readers!”

The more contracts you have, the more you have to read them, and the more you have to have lawyers and other experts, all sheer overhead. And we well know from contract studies that something is likely to happen that will not be covered in the contract.  What do you do then?

I’m not advocating a total absence of contracts.  And I really like sample contract terms such as INCOTERMS and BIMCO contracts that give precise standards that parties can agree to without hesitation, or understand why they need something else. Over time these standards grow in value, because as more deals use them a history of how they work evolves, which can be used as a precedent.  More would be useful. Chris Clott and I have written about the possibility of such terms for service levels in supply chain management of ocean shipping chains, which would coordinate the various participants (ocean liners, ports, terminals, drayage firms, storage firms, and long haul and last-mile carriers).

But still and all, there’s a need for substantial trust between the parties.   And when there’s trust, that people will play fair, the contract may be too formal.   Trust is also the reason why it’s unlikely that brokers of various kinds will still be successful in the maritime business despite the emergence of software forms handling.

 

Marine Link 2020-04-23 101250

Rik van Hemmen April 23, 2020 via Insights: Contracts Are Overrated In Maritime

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China cargo collapse

This interesting article shows how CargoMetrics is using data on ship lading, IoT readings, and vessel tracking to determine the amount of trade to and from China right now. the Coronavirus problem in China has essentially caused ocean commerce to and from China to plummet since Chinese New Year (CNY).

Bulk shipments such as iron ore and coal have dropped over 40% according to the article. Container shipments out of China have also dropped, probably due to the disruption of work schedules at Chinese manufacturers.  There are also issues involving quarantine of ships and cargos due to the virus.  The article is especially good when it uses graphs to show the changes.

Of course, this is a great promotion for Cargometrics’ capabilities.  I think one would have to look closer to discover how well Cargometrics’s data truly represents the entire range of activity, but the trends shown are certainly marked.

One very interesting fact the article gives is that petroleum imports have not dropped yet; they are up by a considerable amount. This may be due, so they say, to the longer transit times. The ships may have to lie to near Chinese ports when they cannot unload due to the quarantines or port handling issues.  The other shoe may yet fall even in the tanker business.

 

American Shipper 2020-02-22 074814     Greg Miller, Senior Editor   Thursday, February 20, 2020  via CargoMetrics data reveals depth of China cargo collapse – FreightWaves