Tag Archives: Logistics

Geopolitics and shipping

Geopolitics is having a great effect on ocean shipping today. Trade is where wars are fought now. It may have been true in the past as well, but the means and methods are changing rapidly.

I listened to this podcast featuring Jon Thompson, co-founder and commercial director of Ambrey, an international risk management company. He made several interesting points.

What’s become possible only recently is to combine, using digital infrastructure, information about many factors into an overview of the risk attendant on any voyage. Ambrey has been working on displaying info about piracy, missile attacks, weather, environmental zones, conflict zones, fuel availability and usage, and others, so it can be incorporated into contracts and insurance provisions, as well as used by captains and ship managers to plan voyages to reduce risk and increase profit.

Ambrey started out supplying onboard security to ships, intending to prevent piracy. But their vision has now expanded to all the hazards commercial ships face; assessing, rating, and providing insurance against them.

Another point he made is that the oceans, 70% of the earth, are becoming better understood and measured. Ocean shipping needs to take advantage of this increasing knowledge about who’s using them where and what conditions they are facing.

John Thompson’s view of the data, analytics, and AI involved, and the business aspects it affects, is most interesting. Take a listen.

John also has interesting views on what he and others look for in hiring new people.

Seatrade logo

Marcus Hand | Aug 08, 2024

https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/ship-operations/geopolitics-and-shipping-john-thompson-ambrey

Red Sea ripples spread across trades

The repercussions of the Red Sea crisis have been longer-lasting and more severe than many shippers thought. Shippers expected delays proportional to the extra sailing time. They may have expected proportional cost increases as well.

But they did not count on such factors as the extreme congestion in Singapore and in other ports. And in ports that have become pivotal, there are looming shortages of equipment such as chassis.

It looks like the disruptions will be with us awhile.

Trade besides containers is also in an upheaval. Sam Chambers’s recent Splash story points out that there is landside competition for capesize ocean shipments of coal.

Mongolia has always had big coal deposits, but moving the coal to international users was a problem. But new rail lines are making the country a viable source for China. China is also importing more from Russia. This chart from Drewry’s shows how the mix of countries China imports from has changed over the past few years.

BAr chart of China coking coal imports

The impact on shipping is that there will be less demand for capesize bulkers to import from Australia and Indonesia.

This is one more piece of evidence that global trade is radically changing. It will affect both shipowners and shippers in ways that are hard to foresee. Hold on to your hat!

By Charlotte Goldstone  29/07/2024

Red Sea ripples spread across container trades

Sam Chambers July 30, 2024

soaring Mongolian coal shipments by rail to China

Ukraine grain exports leap

It’s been a year since the shipping agreement expired between Russia and the UN. The agreement allowed grain from Ukraine to be exported through the Black Sea without attacks from Russia. Many believed that the expiration would mean disaster for Ukranian grain shipments.

Ukraine is one of the world’s greatest exporters of grains. The country has a legendary reputation as the world’s breadbasket. In fact, some underdeveloped countries rely on imported grain, and much of it comes from Ukraine. Developed countries also find it beneficial to use Ukranian grain if they have limited ability to grow it domestically. And Ukraine’s farmers rely on the income from grain sales to keep producing.

We might have expected grain shipments to collapse. But that hasn’t been the case.

In 2024 grain exports by sea actually increased by quite a bit, close to doubling early 2023’s.

The downside of this is the exports are being maintained by a military campaign by Ukraine. It uses drones to keep the Russian navy at bay and prevent their attacks on the grain ships. The ships hug the coastlines of Bulgaria and Romania to escape Russian interdictions. Or they use the Danube River to go inland instead.

It seems wasteful to require military action to keep the grain flowing to the world.

That’s what war does; it makes people waste valuable resources, that could be used to make life better for everyone. The Ukraine war is harming everyone.

Sam Chambers July 19, 2024

https://splash247.com/ukraine-grain-exports-leap-in-the-year-since-shipping-deal-with-russia-expired/