Tag Archives: supply chains

Vessel schedule reliability lowest on record

The nice graphs here show that ocean carrier schedule reliability is extremely low, hovering between 30 and 40%.

Source: Sea-Intelligence, via Port Technology International

The COVID years of 2020 and 2021 have seen a remarkable drop from the 70% to 80% reliability of 2018 and 2019. Is COVID likely the culprit? To some extent the disruption it triggered caused order fluctuation that the ocean carriers with their very large ships were not prepared for. The ensuing port congestion coupled with the practice of blanking sailings of the very large ships when they were not nearly full caused the drop.

I don’t see how a service with a 30% to 40% reliability can maintain itself. The ocean carriers say that back to normal demand will fix the problem, but the fact is that demand for instance from Asia to the West Coast US is actually still below peaks of 2019. So normal demand would be higher, not lower.

Vessel schedule reliability lowest on record 27 January 2022 Port Technology International Team

Vessel schedule reliability lowest on record – Port Technology International

New York approaches biggest US container port title as west coast imports flatline

Why are people choosing New York/New Jersey to import containers?

One concern is the congestion and delay, averaging 18 days according to the article, at the West Coast ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Apparently throughput has reached a max there, and is unlikely to improve much.

Actually, ‘approaches’ is a good word. New York’s throughput is still below Los Angeles, by 411,000 to 417,000. But the trend in LA is down, markedly, and the trend in NY is up, so maybe a switch will happen soon. LA doesn’t have many short-term options for improving throughput.

Another concern of shippers is the possibility of labor actions on the West Coast. Historically, longshoreman unions and port terminal representatives have been confrontational on the West Coast. Since the ports are biggest, strikes there or slowdowns would have a serious effect on commerce. and that’s the point of strikes and slowdowns– to bring maximum pressure on the port and terminal representatives to make concessions. It is likely that there will be some kerfuffle. But it’s not clear that anyone wants a total stoppage or serious constriction of traffic. And it’s a major political nightmare too. Presidents in the past have declared states of emergency to keep people at work and the cargo moving. So I think something will be worked out.

When will New York/New Jersey reach its congestion threshhold, and ships start backing up?

It could be good news that the flush of demand for imports may be abating a bit as shippers think through how to realign their supply needs to reduce the pressure on their supply chains. More regular and predictable supply may be the outcome.

By Mike Wackett 24/01/2022

New York nudges biggest US container port title as west coast imports flatline – The Loadstar

Forwarders fear ‘shut-out’ as other major lines emulate Maersk strategy

This complaint from freight forwarders is starting to resonate. It appears the major container carriers are gradually refusing to sell bulk space on container ships to brokers and forwarders, instead making them buy on the spot market.

One of the issues is to determine whether the liner companies are favoring large brokers and forwarders with discounted contracts, to the disadvantage of smaller brokers. Are there sweetheart deals? I am betting that for sure there will be space available from large brokers to smaller brokers. Price discipline is notoriously hard to enforce.

Is it anti-competitive to offer spot prices? No, I think not. Is it anti-competitive to offer different prices to different groups? Quite possibly. It’s worth a review by government agencies and regulators.

In competitive economics, fairness is not a principle; however, in political life it could be seen as unfair to drive out of business a group of substantial size who provide customized services of a very precise nature in a niche, to some shippers. Those skills may have value to society as a whole that are not captured in prices. That’s where regulation comes in.

By Alex Lennane and Ian Putzger 20/01/2022

Forwarders fear ‘shut-out’ as other major lines emulate Maersk strategy – The Loadstar