Category Archives: Supply Chains

Pacific-Atlantic Rail Link: A Game Changer for China-Brazil Trade

The announcement of an agreement to build a Pacific-Atlantic rail link across South America is important to global commerce. If it actually succeeds, it would allow many goods to skip the Panama Canal in transit from Brazil to the Far East, including China.

The idea seems to be a combined intermodal and bulk rail line from the East Coast of Brazil to Chancay Port in Peru.

China of course imports bulk grain and oilseed cargoes from Brazil. Brazil also is home to some manufacturing which might be cheaper than Chinese manufacturing has become. And Brazil consumes many manufactured goods now as the country develops. China is an ideal source for these.

It’s called the “Two-Ocean Railway”. It should cut the China-Brazil trip to 10 days.

China is already investing $1.3B in Chancay Port in Peru. This railway will create guaranteed demand for the port’s capabilities.

In the light of President Trump’s tariff machinations and his threats surrounding the Panama Canal, it’s wise for the Chinese to create an alternative.

Brazil and China are an ideal trading pair to show comparative advantage at work; each nation produces what it’s best at, and trades for the other goods. The result produces lower costs for both parties, even including transport costs.

Katherine Si, China Correspondent July 15, 2025

https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/ports-logistics/china-and-brazil-plan-pacific-and-atlantic-rail-link

Transshipment and the Vietnam Trade Deal

We know that these trade deals aren’t final. But any deal with tariffs will spawn a lot of transshipment activity. The question always is how much value added is put there in the new country?

The goods may be just moved through the country. This creates a tariff avoidance scheme. This happens even if the goods nominally change hands. Sometimes they don’t even get out of the container.

On the other hand, the goods may be more like intermediate supplies for manufacturing, and be assembled into something else before being exported again. These products may qualify for the lower tariff.

All gradations of these extremes are possible. Each individual transfer must be evaluated for transformation in the new country.

The point of the article below is a good one. Underlying it all is a theory of what tariffs hope to accomplish.

If it’s to reshore manufacturing to the US, that probably won’t happen; instead firms will try to run around the tariffs via transshipment. That has happened for hundreds of years, perhaps thousands. There will be a lot of reshoring talk, to stroke Trump’s ego. There will be a few US investments that may or may not last. But the US economy has developed beyond the manufacturing stage. No one truly wants manufacturing jobs— to get workers, wages will need to be so high that it wouldn’t be cost effective to make most stuff here.

The United States became a maritime power in the 1770-1820 time period by deliberately offering shipping to goods that were trying to evade tariffs and other rules set by European countries.

The trade constraints didn’t work in the long run then and won’t now. People will find a way.

Nick Savvides, Europe correspondent

July 3, 2025

https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/containers/transhipment-key-to-us-vietnam-trade-deal

State of Logistics 2025 Report

The 2025 State of Logistics Report is out. It’s commissioned by the  Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) and prepared by global consulting firm Kearney with help from Penske Logistics.

Its title is “Navigating through the Fog”, which captures the confusion and uncertainty of the scene today.

Report highlights include:

  • A notable report statistic, U.S. business logistics costs, is $2.3 trillion, which translates to 8.7% of the national GDP.
  • There are multiple reasons why demand has not yet fully recovered. Chief among them are simultaneous geopolitical conflicts around the world, climate change (which has affected shipping lanes), high inflation, high interest rates, and, apart from the U.S., sluggish demand.
  • As a result of the economic headwinds and geopolitical instability, the continued fragmentation of global trade is complicating supply chain transactions. Since the 2023 report was released, over 1,000 U.S. freight brokers have shuttered their doors.
  • Some of the largest manufacturers and retailers are seeking to monetize their own logistics capabilities while viewing their supply chain successes as a service to market and profit from.

The annual report is well worth reading as a snapshot of what’s going on. But in these volatile times, it’s really hard to make predictions. Hats off to the authors for trying.

Download the report

I liked this graphic from the report, which shows predicted changes in international goods flows between 2021 and 2031. With all the geopolitical issues we’re facing, things could change overnight, but one thing we see is a mammoth reduction in US trade with China. And they’re predicting even a bigger reduction in trade between the EU and Russia.