MIT students supervised by Dr Ioannis Lagoudis have come up with an analysis of tanker ownership buying or leasing. This is a summary of the study.
A simulation study was made, based on a decision tree that covers chartering (leasing) a time charter or voyage charter (per trip), and buying a new or second hand vessel, and various horizon lengths.
It also discusses the risks. Outcomes seem to show that under their assumptions, time charter is the least risky strategy.
It isn’t profound, but it is a very nice analysis.
Source: De-Risking Oil Tanker Investment Decisions
A lot of oil is moving by rail. This will increase congestion on rail lines. And a lot of it is now moving on unit trains of 80-120 cars, and unloading in unit train terminals instead of car-by-car on manifest trains. It’s the first time over 50% has moved by rail.
EIA: East Coast refineries got 52% of crude by rail in February – Oil & Gas Journal.
Tank cars aren’t safe enough to carry oil, and explosive train wrecks will result. And by the time we build them, will the oil boom become a bust, and the cars won’t be needed? Or will new pipelines reduce the need for this mode? Where should our transportation infrastructure capital be spent? Should oil be going in trains anyway?
US safety board: Oil train tank cars need upgrades.