EV Fires and Shipping

There’s been a lot of news and notice recently about fires aboard ships. EVs and their batteries have been frequently blamed. What are the actual facts?

This podcast features a risk management specialist who works for a P&I firm – one that rates risks for insurance and may actually provide the insurance to cover risks such as fires.

I was fascinated to learn that the evidence is scarce for lithium batteries causing shipboard fires. And it seems that vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICE), which don’t have lithium batteries, are just as likely to cause fires as EVs. It’s a complex subject, and you would expect insurers to be more concerned if lithium batteries were a big problem. But that’s not so, from the evidence collected so far. And there are quite a few techniques that ship operators and shippers could take to reduce the risk of fires even more.

We have to condition the conclusion; often shipboard fires consume all the evidence of how the fire started. But this concern about EVs seems to be a red herring.

In Focus Podcast, 10/30/2025

Chinese buy cheaper Brazilian soybeans

The deal made with China and the US over trade included soybean purchases from the US. However it seems to have handed Chinese businesses an advantage in negotiating with Brazilian shippers of soybeans. Brazilian export prices eased up as a result of the announcement, providing an opening for large purchases from Brazil.

The so-called US-China agreement on soybeans has yet to be confirmed by the Chinese side, so we still don’t know if it’s real. But the leverage for China over Brazil’s soybean producers has increased for real, and will for a while. This may be a much larger advantage for China as a whole than decreasing tariffs for US soybeans later on will be.

Stockpiles of soybeans are growing in the US as the harvest ends, with many unsold beans. The door to China trade may not come quick enough for many farmers, causing a need to store longer. Chinese soybean consumers and may get a better deal from both parties.

Clever negotiating.

Reuters

https://gcaptain.com/chinese-buyers-purchase-brazilian-soybeans-as-prices-ease-over-us-china-trade-thaw/

Supply chain choke points matter!

China expert Leland Miller, co-founder and CEO of China Beige Book International, says that trade is not the issue. The real question is control of supply chain choke points.

These could be supplies of scarce materials, such as rare earths, that are used in worldwide manufacturing processes. It could also be control over key ports or routes that supply products to the world.

Tariffs don’t matter much in this context; they can change, be skirted, or negotiated. Miller pointed out that worldwide, tariffs aren’t actually that high. Control over supply can be used to cut off countries or individual firms that aren’t doing what you want.

Looked at in this light, we can see the China-US struggle over ownership of the Hutchison Panama Canal ports as an effort to control a choke point in trade. We can also see the Houthi effort to gum up the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea as a control effort— to improve Israel’s behavior towards Gaza; with the help of Iran. The Hecksher-Ohlin theory of trade says that nations should trade when there is an imbalance in resources of whatever kind– labor, raw materials, educational capacity, agricultural land. And to exploit these advantages to defeat competitors is as old as warfare itself. Miller believes the Chinese are positioning themselves to wipe out economic competition when they see fit.

The US government will then become a participant, and perhaps a controller, of the free markets. That’s already happening as the US government takes a stake in companies here in the US. So it won’t be free enterprise, but government-influenced markets.

I don’t believe selling interests is necessarily our best course as a nation. Business becomes dealmaking in exchange for foreign cash, that evaporates into the hands of a few rich owners. The people, or workers, don’t benefit; instead they see the higher prices brought on by controls on supply.

John Kingston Tuesday, October 21, 2025

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/china-expert-miller-why-supply-chain-choke-points-matter-most